The Atlanta Falcons (6-10) play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Going into this NFC South matchup, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers sit first in the division with eight wins from 16 matches, two games clear of the fourth-placed Atlanta Falcons. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are big outsiders to stop the Atlanta Falcons in their tracks. Oddsmakers favor the home side, but this game could be closer than people think.
Atlanta Falcons VS Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting lines
Atlanta Falcons VS Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting expert picks
Atlanta Falcons VS Tampa Bay Buccaneers Moneyline
While the moneyline odds favor an Atlanta Falcons win, recent results paint a different picture. The hosts enter Week 18 with four defeats in five games, dropping to 6-10 for the season and 5-3 at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, meanwhile, look like a tempting bet on the moneyline. The 8-8 visitors have dominated recent matchups in this series, winning all five of their past meetings with the Atlanta Falcons.
Atlanta Falcons VS Tampa Bay Buccaneers Spread
The oddsmakers are siding with the Atlanta Falcons on the spread, but not by much. The hosts open up as the 3-point favorites over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for Sunday’s showdown. In the last ten matchups in this series, the average points margin between these two sides was 9.2 points.
The Atlanta Falcons struggled to make home-field advantage count against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in their past five matchups, losing three times at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium by an average losing margin of 10.0 points. Taking the Atlanta Falcons against the spread has been a bad call in recent weeks. They’ve failed to cover in four of their last five home matches and are a dismal 2-8 ATS in the past ten outings overall.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, on the other hand, have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games. Going against the spread doesn’t usually pay out with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The visitors haven’t covered in their last five road matches and are 2-7-1 ATS in the last 10 overall.
Atlanta Falcons VS Tampa Bay Buccaneers Total
Both teams’ offenses normally thrive when the Atlanta Falcons play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The two sides have averaged a very impressive 56.6 points in their last ten meetings.
The total went higher than expected in nine of these past ten contests. Over was the smart bet nine out of ten times at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium. For Sunday’s matchup, the current total sits at 40.5 points.
The past five Atlanta Falcons games didn’t produce as many points as expected, meaning the total went under in each of them. Meanwhile, the last five Atlanta Falcons home games went over two times, leaving the home side with an overall 3-7 record from their last ten contests in the over/under market.
On average, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have seen 40.0 points go on board during their past ten matches and 35.8 points in their last five contests on the road. Against the total, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have gone over in one of the last five road matches and are 4-6 in the last ten overall.
Atlanta Falcons VS Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting trends
- Atlanta Falcons have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games at home.
- In seven of the Atlanta Falcons’ last eight games the total went under
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games at home.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have won the last three head-to-head matches against the Atlanta Falcons on the road.
NFL Power Rankings Week 18 2022, Atlanta Falcons VS Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Atlanta Falcons Form
Facing teams from the same division have been a bit of a sore spot for the Atlanta Falcons of late. In their past six matchups against NFC South teams, they’ve been on the losing side five times and enter Week 18 on the back of a 20-19 defeat against the Arizona Cardinals last time out.
The Atlanta Falcons’ offense is the definition of a middle-of-the-pack NFL offensive line, posting a season average of 20.9 points per game. The art of defending isn’t something the Atlanta Falcons excel in though. By allowing 23.1 points per game, their defense has been below average compared to the rest of the league this year.
Unfortunately, the playoff dream is over for the Atlanta Falcons with a 6-10 record. They’ll use the rest of the regular season to regroup and rebuild, with one eye on a strong draft pick.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Form
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a knack for beating NFC South teams, having won six of their last seven divisional matchups. Their last match ended 30-24 against the Carolina Panthers, leaving them 5-5 in the last ten games.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ offense has been in a slump this season; from ranking second in the league last year with 29.9 points per game, it has only put up 18.5 points in the current one. However, while the offense has struggled to click into gear, the defense has had no such issues. The visitors have kept their opponents to an average of just 20.5 points per match, ranking as the league’s ninth-best defense.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have clinched a spot in the playoffs by winning their division. Now, with one game left to play, the fourth-seeded NFC South champs hope that a strong finish will serve as the perfect warm-up for an extended postseason run.
Atlanta Falcons VS Tampa Bay Buccaneers H2H history
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers downed the Atlanta Falcons 21-15 in the previous matchup between these two franchises. The encounter took place at the Raymond James Stadium in October 2022. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are on a three-match winning streak on the road at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium and boast a 6-4 record in the last ten rounds of this series.
In their last ten head-to-head games, the Atlanta Falcons managed 25.3 points on average per game, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers put 31.3 points on board.