The Miami Dolphins (9-8) head to the Highmark Stadium to face off against the Buffalo Bills (13-3) in an NFL wild-card round game on Sunday. As AFC East champions, the Buffalo Bills earned the right to host this matchup as a second seed in the AFC with 13 regular season wins, four more than the seventh-seeded Miami Dolphins. The Buffalo Bills overpowered the Miami Dolphins 32-29 when they last faced each other, and according to the oddsmakers, the hosts will have no trouble claiming another win here. On the other side, the Miami Dolphins hope to get back on track in their playoff opener following a poor end to their regular season.
Buffalo Bills VS Miami Dolphins Betting lines
Buffalo Bills VS Miami Dolphins Betting expert picks
Buffalo Bills VS Miami Dolphins Moneyline
Take the Buffalo Bills to win (1.15) outright on the moneyline.
The Buffalo Bills have had a lot of success against the Miami Dolphins in recent years, winning eight of the last ten matchups in this series. Chances of a follow-up on Sunday are rated at 87%, with a home win priced at -654 on the moneyline. The Miami Dolphins have had a rough time recently. They’ve lost four of their past five games, and with the oddsmakers pricing a road win at +475, they’re unlikely to improve on their nine-game win tally on Sunday.
Take the Buffalo Bills (-654) to win outright on the moneyline for the upcoming match at the Highmark Stadium. They look the better pick of the two sides, having gone 5-0 in the last five matches.
Buffalo Bills VS Miami Dolphins Spread
Betting on the Buffalo Bills -10.5 (1.91) is our favorite play for this matchup.
The oddsmakers have the Buffalo Bills pinned down as the 10.5-point favorites against the Miami Dolphins, leaving the hosts as the clear-cut choice for the win. A winning margin as high as 10.0 points has settled the last five matches between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins.
Home-field advantage usually has paid off for the Buffalo Bills in this series. In their past five encounters with the Miami Dolphins at the Highmark Stadium, the home side bagged five wins by an average winning margin of 16.6 points. In terms of covering the spread, the Buffalo Bills have been a safe bet recently. They have covered the spread in their last two outings, going 3-2 ATS in their last five matchups in all.
In the most recent games against AFC East opponents, the Miami Dolphins went 8-3 ATS. Their offense averaged 18.3 points per game during that span, and the defense gave up 22.4 points on average. The visitors are 5-5 ATS from their ten most recent road trips, as well as 6-4 ATS in their last ten games overall.
Buffalo Bills VS Miami Dolphins Total
Total over 44.5 (1.91) is your best bet for this game at Maryland sports betting sites.
The Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins’ offenses normally excel when they play each other. In the last ten games between these two teams, the average score has been 52 points per game.
The average total from the last five meetings between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins was 51 points, 6.5 points higher than 44.5—the number set by the oddsmakers for Sunday’s contest at the Highmark Stadium.
When betting on the total in Buffalo Bills games, consider that each of their last three matches went over. The Buffalo Bills have seen four of the past five home games going over. In fact, when looking back on their last 10 matches (both at home and away), they are 5-5 in the over and under betting line.
On average, the Miami Dolphins have seen 48.4 points go on board during their past ten matches and 52.4 points in their last five contests on the road. Also worth noting is the fact that over was a winning bet in four of the last five road games for the Miami Dolphins. In all, they went 6-4 in the over/under in their past 10 home and away matches combined.
Buffalo Bills VS Miami Dolphins Betting trends
- The total points score went over for the Buffalo Bills in their last three games
- Buffalo Bills won the last six H2H matches against Miami Dolphins when playing at home.
NFL Power Rankings Week of 16 2022, Buffalo Bills VS Miami Dolphins
Buffalo Bills Form
Form-wise, the Buffalo Bills are looking strong on the back of seven consecutive wins. A 35-23 triumph over the New England Patriots last week ensured they ended their regular season on a high, leaving them 8-2 in their last 10 matches overall.
Playing at the Highmark Stadium brings out the best in the Buffalo Bills. They have the fourth-best home offensive record, averaging 31.8 points per game with home-field advantage and 28.4 points for all 16 of their regular season games. Visiting offenses normally struggle to break down the hosts’ defense, which has the second-best defensive record at home, having only allowed 18.4 points on their own turf and 17.9 points in all outings.
The Buffalo Bills earned their place in the playoffs with a 13-3 season. They finished first in the AFC East and took second seed in the AFC Conference. While it will be difficult, this is a team that has shown it can go deep into January.
Miami Dolphins Form
The Miami Dolphins snapped out of a five-match losing streak in their regular-season finale by beating the New York Jets 11-6, leaving their current record from the past ten games at 5-5. They are also 1-4 in the last five on the road.
The away offense has been struggling lately. In the last five matches, the unit has only put up 19.6 points on average, which is less than the Miami Dolphins’ season average of 23.4 points. On the other side, the defense has struggled to contain opposing offenses, giving up 23.5 points per game this year.
Despite taking the seventh seed for the AFC playoffs, the Miami Dolphins are a bit of a dark horse bet in the Super Bowl race. They had a 9-8 season to wind up second in the AFC East going into their playoff opener.
Buffalo Bills VS Miami Dolphins H2H history
The Buffalo Bills came away with a 32-29 win in their previous encounter with the Miami Dolphins at the Highmark Stadium on December 2022. The Buffalo Bills are on a six-match home winning streak against the Miami Dolphins at the Highmark Stadium and are 8-2 in the last ten overall.
In the last five matchups at the Highmark Stadium, the Buffalo Bills offense has put 187 points on board against the Miami Dolphins defense. To put that into perspective, that’s an average of 37.4 points per game that the home offense has produced on its own turf in this series of late.